Buyback Radar

Raydium RAY

Revenue fadingRank#38▲3Score34

Revenue −65% over 30 days; paid to holders this week: 21% of the best week in 90 days ($335k against $1.6M).

Dexs, Solana, 192 days of data

Market cap

$425.4M

price $1.56 · 7d −10.3% · 30d −26.7%

FDV $869.4M (2.0× market cap)

source defillama

Buyback revenue / year

$15.7M

holders revenue of the last 30 days, $1.3M, × 365 ÷ 30

Buybackbuyback share 62%

Buys back 3.7% of its market cap a year, using 62¢ of every $1 it earns.

Multiple

27.1×

peer median 19.5× (Dexs, 13 tokens), against 27.1× here

Run-rate

24.4×

last 7 days $335k × 52 = $17.4M a year

last week's payout in line with the 30-day pace

What we checked

  1. Valuation

    Multiple 27.1×, 1.4× more expensive than its Dexs peers (median 19.5×, 13 tokens). The group's largest earner Uniswap trades at 37.3×: 1.4× cheaper per dollar returned to holders. On total revenue: 16.8×, in line with the revenue peer median.

  2. Distribution

    Buyback: Revenue buys the token on the market; the tokens stay in circulation (treasury, stakers or LPs). Holders got $1.3M of $2.1M revenue in 30 days → buyback share 62%. DefiLlama: “Token Buy Back: 25% of Raydium's cut of each trade, used to buy back and burn RAY.”

  3. Sustainability

    Holders were paid on 30 of 30 days (100%); largest single day 6% of the month's holders revenue; paid to holders this week: 21% of the best week in 90 days (more than half below peak). Revenue +32% over 7 days and −65% over 30 days, price −27% over 30 days.

What this does not tell you

The figures come from DefiLlama's adapter for each child protocol. Only a few tokens have an on-chain check (see How the buyback really works); for the rest, whether the tokens were really bought, burned or parked in a treasury wallet is not checked here. Unlocks count where DefiLlama or our research has a vesting schedule; team discretion and liquidity depth only once researched.

Flags

  • Payout >50% below peakthis week's holders revenue is 21% of its best week in the last 90 days ($1.6M)

How the buyback really works

Researched Nov 1, 2026 · 5 wallets: 4 high, 1 medium confidence

  1. The moneyPaid from ongoing revenue
  2. The buyerPartly automatic, partly up to the team
  3. The tokensBought tokens go to the treasury (not burned, not paid out)

The project says 12% of its fees goes to buybacks, in line with DefiLlama (12% of raydium-amm's fees).

On-chain: $1.5M bought back over 30 days = 114% of what DefiLlama reports for the same days.

Method: Helius enhanced transactions: RAY into the token accounts of the buyback holding address DdHD…. Checked November 12, 2026.

Red flags 4

  • Bought-back RAY is not burned but held (~88M RAY according to the researcher's RPC) at an address under protocol control; these tokens could in theory be deployed or sold.
  • Conversion of fees into RAY is operational (the docs only say 'converted or routed'). There is no autonomous buyback contract.
  • DefiLlama holdersRevenue is modelled (12% of fees from the pool API), not measured on the holding address.
  • That 25% of the LaunchLab protocol fee goes to buyback and burn is stated only in DefiLlama's calculation (fees/launchlab). The official docs say LaunchLab fees 'follow LaunchLab configuration'.
Buyback wallets 5
Sources 6

Open the buyback wallets in their explorer and look for regular purchases of the token.

Check it yourself (technical)

Sum incoming RAY (mint 4k3Dyjzvzp8eMZWUXbBCjEvwSkkk59S5iCNLY3QrkX6R) on the token accounts of owner DdHDoz94... over 30 days. Use Solscan Pro v2 /account/transfer?address=DdHD...&token=4k3D...&flow=in, or Helius getSignaturesForAddress per token account (e.g. E5BMFn1mzTGuFWzNHZ7cybWfzetmqhFKS7SM91N5WePU and BEVT2yGq2rvvPCnMipktFWxJaouidExC7scW9GHhMuzi, commented out in dexs/raydium) with getTransaction (jsonParsed). Value at the daily price and check RAY outflows from DdHD... (these would indicate sales or reuse). The docs themselves say: 'Historical buyback activity can be reconstructed from incoming transfers and swaps that route into this address.'

Holders revenue / revenue (30d)
$1.3M / $2.1M
last 30 closed days
To holders
Buys back 3.7% of its market cap a year
FDV / dilution
$869.4M / 2.0×
FDV ÷ market cap
Price 7d / 30d
−10.3% / −26.7%
Revenue growth 7d / 30d
+32% / −65%
versus the period before
Divergence
0.00
revenue growth minus price growth, 30d
DEX liquidity
$15.5M
DexScreener, representative pools
24h volume
$19.6M
all markets, CoinGecko
Unlocks 30d
—
DefiLlama's schedule does not cover the next 30 days while tokens are still locked
Revenue multiple
16.8×
market cap ÷ revenue per year
Fee multiple
2.7×
market cap ÷ fees per year
Distance to peak
21%
this week ÷ best week of 90 days
Data since
May 4
first day with holders revenue

Holders revenue and price

Holders revenue per day7-day averagePrice (right axis)▲ ▼ signal days (history below)

Multiple over time

today 27.1× (scored) · peer median 19.5×

Market cap at close ÷ (holders revenue of the previous 30 days × 365 ÷ 30), with holders revenue capped at revenue and × the type factor: the same effective multiple as the peer median. Values above 100× are drawn at the top. Bands as on the meter; dashed line = peer median today.

Signal history

Signal history of this token: date, type, price at the signal, price after 7 and 30 days, change since the signal and the outcome
DateSignalPrice thenAfter 7dAfter 30dSinceOutcome
October 31, 2026Multiple below medianvoided Nov 1: rule change of 1 Nov 2026: it would not open under the current rules$1.64+10%—−5%not counted
October 31, 2026Sell signalvoided Nov 1: rule change of 31 Oct 2026: it would not open under the current rules$1.64+10%—−5%not counted

Versus peers

Dexs · 13 tokens · median multiple 19.5× · Uniswap is valued 8.7× higher. Per dollar that counts for holders, Raydium is 1.4× cheaper.

Main-ranking peers only. Multiples count holders revenue capped at revenue, × the type factor (buyback 1 · buyback + burn 1 · burn 0.75 · mixed 0.75 · distribution 0.5 · unclear 0.5 · ve-distribution 0.25).

This token against its main-ranking peers: multiple, revenue multiple, buyback share, holders revenue, market cap and revenue growth
TokenDistributionMultipleRevenue multipleBuyback shareTo holders 30dMarket capRev. growth 30d
Pharaoh Exchangeve / bribes0.3×0.2×100%$1.3M$2.6M−52%
RamsesXMixed0.7×0.5×97%$368k$2.2M+8%
nestDistribution0.8×0.4×100%$869k$4.4M+32%
upve / bribes2.0×1.0×100%$313k$3.9M−68%
ChainflipBuyback + burn5.4×5.4×100%$520k$34.4M+59%
Aerove / bribes8.7×4.0×96%$7.4M$372.0M−6%
PancakeSwapBuyback + burn19.5×12.8×65%$2.4M$563.6M−29%
Raydiumthis tokenBuyback27.1×16.8×62%$1.3M$425.4M−65%
Curve Financeve / bribes29.3×11.1×94%$2.6M$374.4M+44%
UniswapleaderBuyback + burn37.3×37.3×100%$8.2M$3.71B−20%
OrcaBuyback47.8×7.9×16%$130k$75.6M−36%
AsterBuyback + burn50.2×∞—$2.8M$1.69B—
MeteoraDistribution180×5.2×18%$458k$161.9M−60%
Score build-up34 of 100

Total score = 35% valuation + 25% momentum + 20% divergence + 20% quality − penalties, clamped to 0–100. Every number here can be recomputed from the figures on this page.

34of 100#38▲3top 74%
Valuation 15.3Momentum 10.1Divergence 0.0Quality 13.3penalties −5= 33.8
Valuation35%
44Valuation 43.7: HR half 37.2 (multiple 27.14×; 100 at ≤3×, 0 at ≥100×, log scale), revenue half 50.1 (revenue peer value 1.00×; 0 at ≤0.33×, 50 at 1×, 100 at ≥3×, log scale).Average of two halves. HR half: linear in log(multiple), 100 at ≤ 3×, 0 at ≥ 100×, 0 without effective HR. Revenue half: linear in log(revenue peer value), 0 at ≤ 0.33×, 50 at 1×, 100 at ≥ 3×; neutral 50 when the peer group falls back to the universe.
Momentum25%capped
4141 before the peak capMomentum 40.6: m = 0.5·g7 0.279 + 0.3·(ln(day jump 0.82) clamped ±1.5 = −0.202) + 0.2·g30 −1.054 = −0.132; 0 at ≤−0.7, 50 at 0, 100 at ≥1.1.m = 0.5·g7 + 0.3·ln(day jump, clamped ±1.5) + 0.2·g30; 0 at m ≤ −0.7, 50 at 0, 100 at ≥ 1.1. Neutral 50 when g7 or g30 is missing; a missing day jump counts as 0.
Divergence20%capped
0Divergence 0.0: d = g30 − p30 = 0.000; 0 at ≤0, 100 at ≥1.5.d = max(0, g30 − p30) when g30 > 0; 0 at d ≤ 0, 100 at d ≥ 1.5, linear.
Quality20%
67Quality 66.7: mean of days HR>0 100% → 100.0 (0 at ≤30%, 100 at ≥90%), largest day 6% of HR30 → 100.0 (0 at ≥60%, 100 at ≤15%), distance to peak 0.21 → 0.0 (0 at ≤0.25, 100 at ≥0.9).Average of: share of days with HR > 0 (0 at ≤ 30%, 100 at ≥ 90%), 1 − largest day ÷ HR30 (0 at ≥ 60%, 100 at ≤ 15%) and distance to peak (0 at ≤ 0.25, 100 at ≥ 0.9).
  • Penalty −5 (dilution_above_2): dilution ratio 2.04 above 2.

HR7 is below 50% of its 90-day peak: momentum and divergence are capped at 50. This is not a penalty; the distance already counts in quality.

Penalties−5

−5Dilution ratio above 2dilution ratio 2.04 above 2

9 rules not applied, 3 wait for research data.

Where the numbers come from
Revenue source
2 active children
DefiLlama adapter per child
Price and market cap
defillama / defillama
latest fetch
Scored on
November 11, 2026
as-of date of the last compute run
On-chain verified
yes
checked Nov 12
Protocols behind this token2 at DefiLlama

Per protocol: DefiLlama's methodology text, the distribution type we read from it and the sentence that decided it. The token takes the type of the protocol that returns the most to holders.

  • LaunchLab
    Launchpad · Solana
    type buyback-burn · source label
    “Token Buy Back: 25% of Raydium's cut of each trade, used to buy back and burn RAY.”

    25% of the protocol fee is used to buy back and burn RAY.

    Token Buy Back
    25% of Raydium's cut of each trade, used to buy back and burn RAY.
    adapter on GitHub ↗
  • Raydium AMM
    Dexs · Solana
    type buyback · source label
    “Token Buy Back: 12% of swap fees across all pool types used to buy back RAY.”

    Fees allocated to RAY token buybacks (12% across all pool types).

    Token Buy Back
    12% of swap fees across all pool types used to buy back RAY.
    adapter on GitHub ↗